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| President Buhari |
President Muhammadu Buhari is on the verge of winning the 2019 election!
Here are 5 reasons why.
Buhari is still a huge factor in Nigeria's political terrain. For all the hoopla over Buhari’s perceived ‘incompetence’ out there, the man is on the cusp of getting re-elected and here’s why:
1. Registered voters in geopolitical zones:
Out of the 73,944,312 registered voters across Nigeria, as of January 2018, the Northwest had a total of 18,505,984 voters while the Southeast had 8,293,093.
The North central had 10,586,965 registered voters, while the North east zone had 9,929,015.
The Southwest had the second highest number of registered voters with 14,626,800.
The South south as a whole had 11,101,093 registered voters.
Look at those numbers again and it begins to hit you. The APC strongholds of Southwest and the core North, have the highest number of registered voters.
The Southeast and South South where anti-Buhari sentiments are strong, are still playing catch-up. And there is nothing they can do about it.
For all the social media rants, when the North votes, it often votes big. Ask Kano and Katsina.
If the North and Southwest settle for Buhari again, the smart money is on him getting re-elected. That's for sure!
2. There is no opposition yet!
The PDP has become a joke since it lost the center in 2015. The party spent two years trying to put its house in order after Goodluck Jonathan got trounced by Buhari.
ThisDay columnist, Simon Kolawole, captured it all in his last Sunday column: he wrote "PDP, as presently constituted, is still the strongest opposition platform. But its brand image is not sparkling. After overcoming the storm-in-a-tea-cup internal imbroglio which many swore had the hand of APC, the PDP is now perceived as the property of one or two Governors"
“Meanwhile, the SDP-an offshoot of the PDP, that has been telling us that Governors and senators will defect to “our fold” in large numbers “next week” remain unserious. Their next week never seems to come. There is also the third force as well as the third farce.
“The youth are mobilising and saying they are not too young to run. A lot is going on, but where is the harmonisation? It’s less than 10 months to the nomination of candidates! By this time in 2014, APC was already consolidated and ready to do battle. Today, much of opposition’s hope is built on the assumption that people are disappointed with Buhari and will automatically vote against him. Yet we know you don’t defeat an incumbent in Africa through wishful thinking. Anywhere an incumbent has lost, it is usually because the opposition played smarter”.
The opposition hasn’t been playing smart since 2015 and that gives Buhari a huge edge ahead of 2019.
3. Buhari is still much loved on the streets of the north:. Yes.. He is still hugely popular in the North!
I was in Kano the last time Buhari visited that city American political scientists would call a swing State. I had to duck to the car so I wouldn’t get caught in a stampede.
Everywhere Buhari has visited in the North has been the same story. Surging crowds chanting ‘sai Baba’ and delving into a frenzy each time the president puts that legendary fist up.
For all his perceived faults, as at today, Buhari remains a huge factor in the politics of the North.
Of course crowds during State visits don’t necessarily translate to votes, but there are a barometer or harbinger of some sort. Most of the lawmakers and Governors from APC controlled States got voted in just because Buhari raised their hands at campaign rallies.
The president enjoys a feral, cult following in the north and there’s nothing to suggest that has changed
Besides, the president continues to enjoy instant name recognition out there. No other politician comes close.
4. Unrelenting Defections to APC:
The APC currently has 24 States in its kitty. Juxtapose that with the PDP’s 11 and APGA’s 1.
In its prime, the PDP controlled 29 out of 36 states. That was in 2007 when Obasanjo systematically decimated the opposition with his do-or-die political philosophy.
Those were the days when the PDP boasted it was going to rule Nigeria for 60 years. When the PDP ceded plenty of grounds to the APC in 2015, most of its members began to empty themselves into the APC. The mass defection continues at a frenetic pace today.
Nigerian politicians don’t like to play opposition politics because their default setting is to align with the party that guarantees food for their bellies. Nobody wants to die of hunger in the name of opposition.
Don’t be surprised if the APC sweeps more States in 2019 because PDP members are daily emptying into the governing party in droves.
If APC and Buhari continues to be performing well, We may just end up with a mono-party democracy in by 2020 because the defections into APC wouldn't stop.
5. Corruption fight perception:
The joke on social media after Yusuf Buhari’s power bike accident, revolved around folks on the streets saying something along these lines:
“Buhari is a poor man who can’t afford a car for his son. That is why his son had an Okada accident”.
Now, that may be a stretch, but I have interacted with average Nigerians who tell me that Buhari is running Nigeria badly but at least he is no thief.
Ministers who welcomed Buhari’s son have no shame left in them
Yusuf Buhari gets a royal reception after recovering from bike accident (Aisha Buhari)
The APC’s anti-corruption agenda may be scoffed at on social media but it remains ingrained in many minds on the streets.
Nigerians who actually possess PVCs may just hand Buhari another term because “he is not a thief”. These Nigerians have also been told that the thieves are the ones frustrating Buhari and who want to stop him from getting another term.
So, yes, there you have it. Barring a miracle, it will be sai Baba till 2023 and there will be just enough humble pies to go around. Wailers should take this to the bank.
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